[Hpr] Regarding episode 3414 and COVID-19 disinformation

Andrew Conway nalumc at gmail.com
Sun Sep 19 01:16:55 PDT 2021

I would prefer that 3414 was left as is and follow up shows are made to
criticise it. I thought that was the HPR way. Perhaps I was mistaken or
else this episode is prompting calls for the HPR way to be clarified or
even changed.

To points just made on this thread, UK estimates of the number of adults
unvaccinated will be highly uncertain so take care when using them. We know
with some certainty the large number of vaccinated people but we're right
at the end of the 10 year census cycle so we don't know the total number of
adults in the UK as well as you might expect. So to estimate the number
unvaccinated we subtract a large number from a slightly larger but much
more uncertain one. The result - the estimated number unvaccinated - is
therefore relatively small but has high uncertainty.

As an illustration of how silly this can become, the Scottish government
celebrated that they had 97% of care home staff vaccinated at one point
last year. The next week, journalists correctly pointed out that the
government's percentage was over 100% and still climbing. The Scottish
government did not have accurate estimates of care home staff numbers.

This stuff isn't easy or straightforward and I don't think assessing
vaccine effectiveness in preventing death can be done reliably based on
such statistics.


On Sun, 19 Sep 2021, 04:59 Bob Tregilus, <v2gbob at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 9/18/21, sambong <5am8on9 at gmail.com> wrote:
> ----------- snip! -------------------
> > 1. in the summary at the begining of that document a claim
> >  is made that 2 doses of the vaccine are 90-95% effective against
> >  mortality. are they lying? is their data flawed? how do i assess what
> >  is "misinformation"?
> > -brian
> >
> ---
> You might start, Brian, with the caveat of the second sentence on page
> 3 of the linked report:
> "The specialist technical briefings contain early data and analysis on
> emerging variants and findings have a high level of uncertainty."
> Unless you happen to be an expert in the field(s) of virology,
> epidemiology, and contagious disease genetics, I'd leave the
> interpretation of the report up to others.
> In meantime, at least for me, I'm happy to follow the advice of
> thousands of physicians, virologists, and other medical
> professionals--who have taken the vaccines themselves--and who
> recommend that others do so as well.
> I got the vaccine just as soon as I could. I double mask with an N-95
> and a homemade two-layer cloth mask to hold the N-95 tight against my
> face when indoors with strangers. And I stay away from crowded places,
> such as restaurants, concerts, movie theaters, &c.
> Bob
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